If Social Media Decided the Oscars – Week 3
It’s time for the third installment of Gruvi’s analysis of the Oscar nominees for Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film on social media. With 12 Years a Slave picking up the award for Best Film and The Great Beauty scooping the award for Best Foreign Language Film at the BAFTAs this week, lets see if anything has changed for our nominees over the past seven days.
To see the full updated analysis click on this link to open a google doc spreadsheet:
For the methodology, please take a look here.
Social media nominations for BEST PICTURE:
The reach of all the nominees increased on Facebook this week, with American Hustle up by almost 2 million, taking it to 36,222,140. However, it was outshone by The Wolf of Wall Street who brought over 3 million extra fans into its reach, protecting its overall lead on Facebook.
As with the Best Foreign Film category, Twitter chatter is now down over the past 30 days for all nominees. Taking a particularly hard hit is American Hustle, who are down 300,000 tweets from last week. Its current figure of 974,919 tweets pales in comparison to its score the first week of over 2.2 million.
American Hustle also lost 2 points from its Sentiment Score, which now sits at 80. Captain Phillips, Her and Philomena similarly all dropped a point or two over the past week. Gravity has fared the worst since last week, dropping from 84 to 72. However, Dallas Buyers Club and The Wolf of Wall Street both protected their scores of 85 and 75 respectively, while 12 Years a Slave jumped up a point to 80.
Despite 12 Years a Slave picking up Best Film at the BAFTAs this week, American Hustle is still social media’s choice for Best Film. However, things potentially could change over the coming week. The Dallas Buyers Club is making a challenge for the award, with its Facebook reach and Twitter activity catching up. Moreover, The Wolf of Wall Street’s strong showing on Facebook this week shows its not giving up without a fight. However, with only a week to go, it may be to late to catch American Hustle.
Best Film Ranking and odds from William Hill
1. American Hustle (14/1)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street (50/1)
3. 12 Years a Slave (2/9) [Bookies favourite]
4. Dallas Buyers Club (12/1)
5. Captain Phillips (200/1)
6. Her (200/1)
7. Gravity (4/1)
8. Philomena (100/1)
9. Nebraska (200/1)
Social media nominations for BEST FOREIGN FILM:
All of the nominated films in this category increased their reach on Facebook over the past week. However, The Great Beauty is still well out in front, ahead of closest rivals The Hunt and Omar. Notably, The Missing Picture finally achieved enough reach to be measurable on Facebook, and now posts a total reach of 22072.
The situation on Twitter is the reverse of what we’ve seen on Facebook, with an across the board decline in Chatter over the past 30 days concerning the nominees. The Great Beauty has now over 3500 tweet mentions less than last week, and the picture is no better for the likes of The Hunt (-2500 tweets), The Broken Circle Breakdown (-3000 tweets) and The Missing Picture (-5000 tweets). As none of the nominees increased their Twitter chatter over the past week, The Great Beauty maintains its lead here once again.
Concerning sentiment scores, opinions regarding The Hunt improved by 2 points, an increase mirrored by a decline for The Broken Circle of 2 points. Sentiment scores for Omar took a bit of a hit this week, dropping from 62 to 54. However, the best performers in this category, The Great Beauty and The Missing Picture, maintained their pace, scoring 95 and 82 respectively.
Overall, despite movement concerning all the nominees’ social media campaigns, The Great Beauty maintains its position as the favourite to win. Given its seemingly unassailable lead, it looks likely The Great Beauty will be able to add a Social Media Oscar for Best Foreign Film to its awards collection, alongside its BAFTA from earlier this week. Finally, The Missing Picture’s increased Facebook reach sees this nominee jump up to third.
Best Foreign Film Ranking and odds from William Hill
- The Great Beauty (1/6) [Bookies favourite]
- The Hunt (4/1)
- The Missing Picture (50/1)
- The Broken Circle Breakdown (8/1)
- Omar (33/1)
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