If Social Media Decided The Oscars – Week 4

Ben Johnson on 26 February 2014

With less than a week to go until the 86th Academy Awards, its time to see who has won the Social Media Oscars! Over the last four weeks, we’ve been trying to find out how the users of social media would award Oscars if it were up to them, rather than Academy members. It’s been interesting, with our findings not completely corresponding with what the bookmakers are predicting. Check out the infographic and our analysis below!

Info-Graph-Smaller

Based on the final results of our analysis below, we’ll be putting our money where our mouth keyboard is and placing bets based on social media predictions. We’ll update this post when the bets are placed!

To see the full updated analysis click on the links below to open the Google spreadsheets:

Best Picture

Best Foreign Film

For the methodology, please take a look here.

Social media  nominations for BEST PICTURE:

The Facebook stats show no movement from last week, so there’s no change on this front. The Wolf of Wall Street still leads the way, followed by our favourite over the past three weeks American Hustle, and 12 Years a Slave in third.

Philomena, Nebraska and The Dallas Buyers Club all increased their Twitter chatter. But it was a bad week for The Wolf of Wall Street, which is now down over 100,000 tweets since last week. American Hustle also lost Twitter chatter over the last seven days, but less so, at -30,000 Tweets. Captain Phillips’s sentiment score suffered for a second week in a row, dropping from 89 to 86. As did The Wolf of Wall Street, which dropped from 75 to 73. However, most of the nominees maintained their sentiment scores, with The Dallas Buyers Club and Nebraska increasing their scores by 1.

Overall, it was a good week for The Dallas Buyers Club, which made a last minute push  for the award – particularly on Twitter. But American Hustle’s lead has proved simply to big to overcome. And, so, the award for Best Film goes to…

AMERICAN HUSTLE!

Oscars-2014-What-Each-Movie-Nominated

Our Final Best Film Ranking, with the odds from William Hill:

  1. American Hustle (14/1)
  2. The Wolf of Wall Street (50/1)
  3. 12 Years a Slave (2/9) [Bookies favourite]
  4. Dallas Buyers Club (12/1)
  5. Captain Phillips (200/1)
  6. Her (200/1)
  7. Gravity (4/1)
  8. Philomena (100/1)
  9. Nebraska (200/1)

Social media nominations for BEST FOREIGN FILM:

As with the Best Film category, none of the stats for the nominees showed any change on Facebook over the past week. Therefore, The Great Beauty still leads the way, ahead of closest rivals The Hunt and Omar.

The Hunt made up for its drop in Twitter chatter in Week 3 by increasing its Tweets by 2000 this week. However, both Omar and The Missing Picture struggled to maintain their chatter, dropping over 2000 and 5000 respectively. The Great Beauty maintained its almost perfect sentiment score of 95 this week, as did The Missing Picture with 82. Meanwhile The Hunt moved up from 70 to 72, and The Broken Circle Breakdown improved its dismal score of 20 by three, taking itself to 23.

The reality of this contest is that it was largely over before it began. The Great Beauty has throughout maintained significantly higher numbers across both social networks – a feat matched only be its impressive sentiment score. As a result, the winner of the award for Best Foreign Film is…

THE GREAT BEAUTY!

Best Foreign Film Ranking and odds from William Hill:

  1. The Great Beauty (1/6) [Bookies favourite]
  2. The Hunt (7/2)
  3. The Missing Picture (50/1)
  4. The Broken Circle Breakdown (8/1)
  5. Omar (33/1)

About Gruvi

Hello and welcome to Gruvi! We’re a fast growing social technology company that is helping global entertainment brands tackle the rising challenges and opportunities of online, social and mobile marketing. We do this by providing campaign management systems that scale internationally while promoting and tracking the sales of their content. Our clients include Walt Disney, Warner Bros, Sony Pictures, Bskyb and many small to medium sized film distribution companies around the world.

 


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