If Social Media Decided The Oscars – Week 2

Nele Wollert on 14 February 2014

Welcome back to the second edition of Gruvi’s analysis of the Oscar nominees for Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film on social media.

To see the full updated analysis click on this link to open a google doc spread sheet:

For the methodology, please take a look here.

Social media nominations for BEST PICTURE:

None of the contenders for Best Picture picked increased their reach on Facebook since last week. On Facebook, The Wolf Of Wall Street remains in pole position, followed by American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave.

On Twitter, the picture looks a little different. While all nominees have received less mentions compared to last week, last week’s high achiever American Hustle has dropped significantly more than the rest. Gravity improved its sentiment score from 72 to 84, closing the gap to Dallas Buyers Club’s 85 and Captain Phillip’s (improved) top score of 90. No major changes to the big picture: in the 2014 Oscar Audience Awards, American Hustle remains the strongest contender, with The Wolf of Wall Street and 12 Years a Slave as runner-ups. William Hill (bookmaker) still insists on disagreeing with the audience’s opinion, however, notably it has slashed the odds for The Dallas Buyers club from 100/1 to 10/1 – check out the odds below:

Best Film Ranking and odds from William Hill:

1. American Hustle (12/1)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street (50/1)
3. 12 Years a Slave (1/3) [Bookies favourite]
4. Dallas Buyers Club (10/1)
5. Gravity (7/2)
6. Captain Phillips (200/1)
7. Her (200/1)
8. Philomena (200/1)
9. Nebraska (200/1)

Social media  nominations for BEST FOREIGN FILM:

The Great Beauty remains in the leading position on Facebook, followed by The Hunt and The Broken Circle Breakdown.

The movie chatter on Twitter has cooled off slightly, with only 27,000 tweets about the Great Beauty in the last 30 days (down from 37,000 last week). The Hunt has caught up by almost 10,000 tweets. Sentiment scores have also improved for the Danish submission, from the previous 53 to 68. The Great Beauty remains odds-on favourite with a whopping sentiment score of 95. The Broken Circle Breakdown cannot improve its position on Twitter despite increased awareness of the film – almost 8000 tweets compared to last week’s 7000 – more importantly its sentiment scores have deteriorated from 26 down to 22.

The picture painted by social media remains pretty unchanged for the Best Foreign Movie category, with The Great Beauty maintaining its frontrunner position. And contrary to the case of Best Picture, William Hill’s prediction and our sentiment analysis agree on who’ll take home the coveted award come oscars night:

Best Foreign Film Ranking and odds from William Hill

1. The Great Beauty (1/2) [Bookies favourite]
2. The Hunt (9/4)
3. The Broken Circle Breakdown (7/1)
4. Omar (20/1)
5. The Missing Picture (40/1)

 


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